Polypropylene Weekly Report: Spot market ranged during the week, and the number of restarted units increased(December 19, 2024)
Chapter 1 Review of polypropylene market this week
1. Analysis of domestic polypropylene market trends
This week, the domestic polypropylene market showed a range of consolidation. Compared with the same period last week, the prices in various regional markets rose and fell, and the overall change was not large, ranging from 10-50 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the domestic drawing price ranged from 7370 to 7790 yuan/ton.
The main factors affecting price fluctuations during the week are: 1. On the cost side, international oil prices showed a trend of falling first and then rising during the week, with a limited overall fluctuation range. In the early part of the week, oil prices fell due to factors such as European and American manufacturing data that were lower than expected and the possible easing of geopolitical situations. In the late part of the week, oil prices rebounded due to the continuous decline in US crude oil inventories for four consecutive weeks and the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cuts. 2. On the supply side, the PP units of Luoyang Petrochemical, Fujian United, Lanzhou Petrochemical, Zhong'an United, etc., involving a total capacity of about 1.78 million tons, resumed operation during the week, and the PP units of Guangzhou Petrochemical and Maoming Petrochemical, involving a total capacity of about 440,000 tons, were shut down for maintenance. The total output of PP enterprises showed an overall upward trend during the week, and the output increased compared with the previous period. In addition, the impact of the shutdown of PP units in the latter part of the week was affected by the restart of the Baofeng PP unit in Inner Mongolia, and then fell from a high level, and the supply pressure of goods was slightly revealed. 3. On the demand side, the follow-up of terminal demand was limited, and the downstream was cautious in purchasing raw material PP, and mostly maintained rigid demand to replenish inventory, which to a certain extent limited the upward space of the center of gravity of the PP market price.
2. Analysis of the trend of the polypropylene market in US dollars
3. List of propylene market prices
Chapter 2 Forecast of polypropylene trends
In terms of raw materials, multiple factors interweave and affect international oil prices in the short term, including the OPEC+ production cuts that will continue until the first quarter of next year, signs of improvement in the Asian economy, and the possible increase in crude oil demand as the Christmas holidays approach in Europe and the United States. There are also negative factors such as the continued concerns in the crude oil market about the outlook for global demand, the possible weakening of the instability of the geopolitical situation, and the continued high operation of the US dollar index. In terms of supply, there are no PP units scheduled for maintenance next week. Although the possibility of temporary additional shutdowns cannot be ruled out, the PP units of Daxie Petrochemical and Qinzhou, Guangxi, which were previously shut down, are planned to be restarted in the early part of next week. In addition, the expected landing of new PP units such as Yulong Petrochemical and Baofeng, Inner Mongolia, may increase the supply of goods in the market. In terms of demand, it is expected that most downstream industries will gradually enter a period of sluggish orders, and as the end of the year approaches, companies' risk aversion will intensify, which may limit the purchase of raw material PP to a certain extent. Although some downstream industries may have a certain increase in orders due to pre-holiday stocking, the improvement of some industries alone will have limited boost to the PP market. Under the combined influence, the polypropylene market is expected to consolidate weakly next week.
