Caustic soda weekly report: Liquid caustic soda market rose and fell, flake caustic soda market rose steadily, and 05 contract increased positions(December 26, 2024)

I. Analysis of caustic soda market this week

1. Overview of spot market

(1) Analysis of liquid caustic soda market
This week, the price of liquid caustic soda market rose and fell, 32% ion membrane caustic soda showed different trends, and 50% ion membrane caustic soda rose first and then fell. From the perspective of regional market price adjustments, 32% ion membrane caustic soda fell by 10-100 yuan/ton in some areas, and rose by 10 yuan/ton in some areas; 50% ion membrane caustic soda rose by 10-100 yuan/ton in some areas, and the prices of other concentrations of caustic soda were temporarily stable. Last Friday, the liquid caustic soda market fell in some areas, which was mainly affected by the previous decline in Shandong. The mentality of the operators in the market was weak, and the enthusiasm of downstream to accept goods was not high, and the market price fell and consolidated; at the beginning of this week, the price of liquid caustic soda market was stable with a slight decline. This week, the price of liquid caustic soda purchased by the main alumina plant in Shandong was lowered again, which was bearish to a certain extent. The market atmosphere in Shandong and East China fell narrowly; however, as for 50% caustic soda, some areas had an increase from last Friday to the beginning of this week, mainly supported by the newly signed large orders and the tight shipments of some manufacturers in the region; in the middle of the week, 32% caustic soda was stable with a slight decline, the markets in Shandong and East China continued to decline, and some surrounding areas followed the decline and consolidated, and the cautious wait-and-see sentiment of downstream operators remained unabated; as for 50% caustic soda, it fell back after rising, and the enthusiasm of downstream to operate high-priced goods into the market was not high, and the market price fell narrowly. In the latter part of the week, the price of 32% caustic soda in Hebei Province decreased slightly, mainly due to the previous decrease in Shandong and East China. In addition, the demand side in the region performed poorly, and the market price was weak. However, there was a slight increase in South China, mainly due to the small amount of sea caustic soda arriving in recent days and the tight supply in the market. Other regions maintained stable operation, and there was no obvious change in both supply and demand. The downstream receiving situation was general, and the market trading atmosphere mostly maintained the previous level. Therefore, the price range did not see obvious adjustment for the time being, and most of the industry players were cautious and waited and watched the market. The upstream manufacturers of low-concentration caustic soda adjusted their prices mainly in Shandong and East China, while some regions in North China mainly followed the decline. South China slightly increased the price, and most manufacturers in other regions kept the price stable and waited and watched.

(2) Analysis of the caustic soda flake market
This week, the market price of caustic soda flakes was stable with a slight increase, and the trading atmosphere in the market was lukewarm. The new order quotations of the main manufacturers in the northwest increased slightly, and the new order quotations of manufacturers in most regions remained stable. At the beginning of the week, the ex-factory prices of mainstream manufacturers in Shandong Province remained stable, and the trading atmosphere in the market did not change significantly compared with the previous period. On Tuesday and Wednesday, new order quotations of manufacturers in the northwest region were announced one after another. Some regions saw an increase, while most regions did not see a significant adjustment. The inventory of some manufacturers was running at a low level. In addition, the logistics and transportation maintained the previous level. The unsmooth delivery and tight supply supported a slight increase in market prices, with an increase of 20 yuan/ton. The transaction prices of some manufacturers followed the upward trend, while the actual transaction prices of most manufacturers did not fluctuate much. The flake caustic soda manufacturers were cautious in adjusting prices.

2. Futures market analysis
(1) Futures trend analysis
Caustic soda SH2505 contract increased positions and moved up. Last Friday, the futures price fluctuated upward; it continued to rise on Monday and Tuesday, and the futures price climbed to the high of the week and then fell on Thursday; the futures price fluctuated upward on Thursday, with a limited upward range; the futures price fluctuated upward in the night session on Thursday, and fell slightly in the late trading; the early opening price rose slightly and then quickly fell to the intraday low, and then showed an "N" trend, with a slight dive in the late trading, and the market continued to fluctuate upward in the afternoon. Changes in positions of caustic soda 2505 contract during the week: 7205 lots were added last Friday, 12447 lots were added on Monday, and 19635 lots were added on Tuesday. 05 contract: 2270 lots were reduced on Wednesday, and 6581 lots were added on Thursday. As of Thursday's close, the SH2505 contract held 107835 lots, with a closing price of 2778.

2. This week's caustic soda market price

3. Forecast for caustic soda market outlook
This week, the caustic soda market showed mixed trends, with the liquid caustic soda market rising and falling, and the flake caustic soda market rising steadily. In the later period, the supply of liquid caustic soda in the field is relatively sufficient, the previous maintenance equipment has been restored one after another, and the start-up of the field has increased. Only some chlor-alkali equipment has a maintenance plan. The demand side has not fluctuated much, and the demand in most regions continues to be weak. The demand in the southwest region may have an increase in demand, mainly affected by the increase in the start-up of some new energy enterprises in the region. The price of Shandong Alumina's purchase of liquid caustic soda has been continuously reduced, which has a certain negative impact on the prices in the local and surrounding markets. Overall, it is expected that the short-term liquid caustic soda market will continue to run in a differentiated trend, with most regions maintaining stable operation, a few regions still having room for downward movement, and some regions may have a slight upward adjustment. The flake caustic soda market is stable with a slight increase, and most regions maintain relatively stable operation. Some factories are tight on picking up goods, and the low inventory of some factories supports a slight increase in market prices, and the market transaction price follows a slight upward movement; however, the downstream industry is cautious and wait-and-see, and the market transaction atmosphere in most regions is lukewarm. The actual transaction price of the manufacturer's supply does not fluctuate much. It is expected that the short-term flake caustic soda market price will be stable and consolidated, with limited fluctuations.