Caustic soda: The regional decline of liquid alkali is obvious, and the futures price fluctuates widely.(December 16, 2024)
Caustic soda futures analysis: SH2501 contract opening price on December 16: 2437, highest price: 2443, lowest price: 2351, position: 31815, settlement price: 2390, yesterday's settlement: 2435, drop: 45, closing price: 2379, day Trading volume: 56,750 lots, deposited funds: 363 million, capital outflow: 70.85 million.
Caustic soda spot analysis: The caustic soda market is stable but weak today. The liquid alkali market continues to decline in some areas, and the decline is more obvious in some areas. The flake alkali market price is relatively stable at the beginning of the week. From the perspective of market price adjustments in various regions, the price of 32% ion membrane alkali fell by 10-150 yuan/ton in some areas, the price of 50% ion membrane alkali fell by 10-220 yuan/ton, and the price of 49% ion membrane alkali fell by 20-30 yuan individually. / ton, 99% of the caustic soda market prices have remained stable, and the price ranges of other concentrations of alkali have not seen significant changes.Today, the market price of liquid alkali continued to fall in some areas, with the decline in some areas being more obvious, and no obvious fluctuations in other areas; the market price in Shandong continued to decline, and the purchase price of the main alumina plant was reduced again over the weekend, which has certain negative effects on the liquid alkali market. In addition, The downstream enthusiasm for receiving goods is not good, and the prices of 32% and 50% liquid alkali have been reduced; in Hebei region, affected by the decline in Shandong, the demand side has not improved, the mentality of the industry players is weak, and the market price is weak. In other regions, affected by the reduction of main downstream purchases, the market center of gravity fell. The overall wait-and-see sentiment in the caustic soda market today is strong, the market trading atmosphere has weakened to a certain extent compared with the previous period, and the enthusiasm of downstream companies to enter the market is average; the ex-factory prices of mainstream manufacturers in Shandong have remained stable, and manufacturers in the northwest have not announced new prices yet, and the market performance in various regions is relatively cautious.
Analysis of caustic soda futures: The futures price of the caustic soda SH2501 contract maintained a small fluctuation in the night trading, and then fluctuated downwards; there was a slight dive in the morning opening, and then fluctuated downwards. It fell to the intraday low and then rebounded and fluctuated; the market continued to fluctuate in the afternoon, and then rebounded slightly to consolidate. As of today's afternoon close, the SH2501 contract has fluctuated in a range of 2351-2443 throughout the day, with a price difference of 92. The 01 contract has reduced its position by 5330 lots, with 31815 positions held so far.
Analysis of caustic soda index: According to Tu Duoduo's data calculation, the domestic caustic soda index was 3125.31 on December 16, down 57.68, or 1.812%. The domestic caustic soda index fell.
Caustic soda market outlook forecast:
Spot aspects: The current liquid alkali market continues the regional downward trend, and the decline is relatively obvious in some areas; over the weekend, the main alumina plants announced a reduction in the purchase price of liquid alkali, which has a certain negative impact on the market this week, and the market's bearish sentiment has increased; on-site supply Relatively sufficient, as demand continues to be weak, inventory pressure on some manufacturers has increased. The liquid alkali market is expected to be stable but weak in the short term, and there are still downward expectations. The caustic soda market maintains stable operation. At the beginning of the week, market prices in various regions were relatively stable. Manufacturers in the northwest region have not announced new prices yet, and the cautious wait-and-see mood in the market has not diminished. Market transactions are tepid. Affected by poor delivery in some areas and logistics obstruction, the supply of tradable goods is still tight, which may provide some support to the market price. It is expected that the market price of caustic soda will be mainly consolidated in a narrow range in the short term, with limited fluctuations. , pay attention to market transactions.
