Caustic soda: Liquid caustic soda market rose and fell differently, flake caustic soda market rose locally, and futures prices hit a two-month high(December 31, 2024)
Caustic soda futures analysis: December 31 SH2505 contract opening price: 2799, highest price: 2908, lowest price: 2794, position: 146611, settlement price: 2859, yesterday's settlement price was 2778, up: 81, closing price: 2907, daily trading volume: 355408 lots, deposited funds: 2.048 billion, capital inflow: 585 million.
Caustic soda market price:
Caustic soda spot analysis: Today, the caustic soda market continued to show a differentiated trend, among which the liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda market trends were different, the liquid caustic soda market price rose and fell differently, and the flake caustic soda market rose locally. From the perspective of regional market price adjustments, the price of 32% ion membrane caustic soda fell by 10-30 yuan/ton in some areas, and the market price rose by 50 yuan/ton in some areas. The market price of 99% flake caustic soda rose by 50 yuan/ton in some areas, and the price range of other concentrations of caustic soda did not change significantly. Specifically, the liquid caustic soda market today rose and fell differently. There was a slight decline in low-concentration caustic soda in Shandong and Jiangsu. The downstream industry in Shandong was willing to buy at a low price. Most manufacturers' quotations remained stable today, and some manufacturers slightly lowered their quotations. Some units in Jiangsu increased their load operation, and the supply in the market increased. In addition, the downstream enthusiasm for receiving goods was limited, and the market price fell slightly. However, some areas had a slight increase today, mainly due to the tight supply of equipment maintenance in the region. Today, the flake caustic soda market rose locally. The main manufacturers in the northwest region raised their new order quotations this week, and the quotations in Shandong remained stable. The overall wait-and-see sentiment in the market remained unchanged. The pre-sale situation in some areas was still good, and the delivery of pre-sale order contracts was mainly based on contracts. In addition, some factories were not able to pick up goods smoothly, and the supply in the market was tight. Some manufacturers had the intention to hold prices.
Analysis of caustic soda futures: The night trading price of caustic soda SH2505 contract maintained a short and small fluctuation and then fluctuated upward; the futures price continued to fluctuate upward in the morning, and then rebounded and continued to rise after a slight decline; the market continued to fluctuate upward in the afternoon, and rose to the intraday high in the late trading. As of today's afternoon closing, the SH2505 contract fluctuated between 2794 and 2908 throughout the day, with a price difference of 114, and the 05 contract increased its position by 37775 lots. As of now, the position is 146611 lots.
Analysis of caustic soda index: According to Tuduoduo data, the domestic caustic soda index was 3051.71 on December 31, an increase of 2.52 from the previous working day, an increase of 0.083%. The domestic caustic soda index rose.
Forecast of caustic soda market:
Spot: The caustic soda market continues to run with a differentiated trend, among which the price of liquid caustic soda market has declined locally, and the price of flake caustic soda market has risen steadily; in terms of the current situation of liquid caustic soda, Shanxi and Henan alumina plants announced that the price of continuous liquid caustic soda from January to February 2025 will be reduced, which will have a certain negative impact on the local and surrounding markets. In addition, the downstream enthusiasm for receiving goods in the off-season is not high, and the rigid demand purchase is maintained. The chlor-alkali enterprises are under pressure to lower their quotations; other individual regions have equipment maintenance, and the tight supply side has a positive impact on market prices; it is expected that the liquid caustic soda market price will be mainly in a narrow range of adjustment in the short term, most regions will remain stable, a few regions still have room for downward movement, and some regions may have a small increase. The flake caustic soda market is stable with an increase. This week, the quotation of new orders in the northwest region has been raised, which has a certain boost to the market atmosphere; the pre-sale situation in some regions is still good, and some factories have a tight delivery situation, which has a certain positive support for the market price. It is expected that the flake caustic soda market price will fluctuate steadily in the short term, and pay attention to the market transaction situation.
